By Pankaj Srivastava, July13,2025
Tensions between India and China may rise once again due to the Dalai Lama’s succession plan and China’s strong opposition to it. Here’s a look at the diplomatic undercurrents and the reasons behind this potentially volatile issue.
The Dalai Lama Once Again at the Center of India-China Tensions
The Dalai Lama has once again emerged as a potential flashpoint in India-China relations. In 1959, his decision to seek asylum in India shattered the illusion of the “Hindi-Chini Bhai-Bhai” slogan, and just three years later, the two countries went to war. Now aged 90, the Dalai Lama insists that his successor should be chosen according to Tibetan spiritual traditions — a stance China strongly opposes. Beijing aims to bring the Dalai Lama institution under its control, completing what it sees as the political integration of Tibet.
Union Minister Kiren Rijiju recently stated that the Dalai Lama’s wishes on the matter must be given utmost importance — a comment that drew a sharp response from China. Some defense analysts believe that if another war breaks out between India and China, the succession of the Dalai Lama could be a key trigger.
The Succession Tension
On July 6, 2025, the 14th Dalai Lama, Tenzin Gyatso, announced in a video message on his 90th birthday that his successor will be chosen by the Gaden Phodrang Trust, in line with Tibetan customs. China, on the other hand, claims that the selection of the next Dalai Lama falls under its jurisdiction and must follow Chinese laws and the “Golden Urn” process — a method in which candidates’ names are placed in a golden urn and selected by lottery.
India-China Tensions Flare Over Dalai Lama Succession Issue
On July 3, 2025, Indian Union Minister Kiren Rijiju stated, “The selection of the Dalai Lama’s successor will be in accordance with his own wishes. This is important for Tibetans and their followers around the world.” China strongly objected to the statement, with Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning issuing a warning to India on July 4, urging it not to interfere in matters related to Tibet.
Responding to the Chinese reaction, Indian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal clarified the same day: “The Government of India does not take any position or comment on matters related to faith and religion.” This dual messaging highlights India’s diplomatic tightrope—on one hand, offering moral support to the Tibetan community, while on the other, trying to maintain a balanced relationship with China.
The Dalai Lama Tradition
The Dalai Lama was born on July 6, 1935, in Taktser village in the Amdo province of Tibet. He was named Lhamo Thondup. At the age of two, he was recognized as the reincarnation of the 13th Dalai Lama and was given the name Tenzin Gyatso, meaning “Ocean of Wisdom and Protector of Dharma.” The title “Dalai Lama” itself means “Ocean of Wisdom.” He belongs to the Gelug school of Tibetan Buddhism, also known as the “Yellow Hat” sect.
The Dalai Lama and the Long Shadow of Tibet: A Legacy of Faith and Geopolitical Tension
The Gelug tradition of Tibetan Buddhism, founded in the 14th century by the reformer Je Tsongkhapa, has emerged as the most dominant among the four major schools of Tibetan Buddhism—Nyingma, Kagyu, Sakya, and Gelug. In the 17th century, the 5th Dalai Lama, Ngawang Lobsang Gyatso, with the military backing of Mongol allies, succeeded in unifying Tibet. He established the position of the Dalai Lama as not only a spiritual guide but also the political leader of Tibet.
The institution of the Dalai Lama is deeply rooted in the Tibetan belief in reincarnation. According to tradition, each Dalai Lama, before passing away, leaves behind clues and signs believed to indicate the place and identity of his rebirth. The Panchen Lama plays a vital role in locating and recognizing the new Dalai Lama—just as the Dalai Lama is involved in identifying the reincarnation of the Panchen Lama. This spiritual interdependence lies at the heart of Tibetan Buddhist leadership.
Buddhism in Tibet: A Sacred Legacy
Buddhism arrived in Tibet during the 7th century, under the reign of King Songtsen Gampo, who strengthened diplomatic and religious ties by marrying Buddhist princesses from China and Nepal. The faith was further rooted in Tibetan soil through the efforts of eminent Indian scholars like Padmasambhava and Shantarakshita, who laid the intellectual and spiritual foundation of Buddhism in the region.Major Indian monastic universities such as Nalanda and Vikramshila became revered pilgrimage sites for Tibetan monks and scholars.
Tibetan Buddhism evolved as part of the Vajrayana tradition, characterized by intricate tantric practices, sacred mantras, and a strong emphasis on the guru-disciple relationship. Over time, Vajrayana Buddhism became so deeply embedded that it gradually replaced the native Bon religion, shaping the unique spiritual identity of Tibet.
China’s Claim
China asserts that Tibet has been a part of its territory since the 13th century, during the Yuan Dynasty. However, many historians and Tibetan activists dispute this claim, arguing that Tibet maintained autonomy for several centuries. Between 1913 and 1950, Tibet had its own government, currency, passports, and army—features that reflected its status as an independent state.
After Mao Zedong’s Communist Revolution in 1949, China launched a military invasion of Tibet in 1950, calling it a “peaceful liberation.” In 1951, Tibetan representatives signed the Seventeen-Point Agreement, formally recognizing Tibet as a part of China. However, Tibetans widely considered the agreement illegal, leading to a major uprising in 1959. Following the crackdown, the Dalai Lama fled to India.
The Dalai Lama and the 1962 War
After the 1959 Tibetan uprising, the Dalai Lama fled from Lhasa on March 17 and reached India on March 31. Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru granted him asylum in Dharamshala, Himachal Pradesh, where the Tibetan government-in-exile was later established. This reflected India’s tradition of offering refuge and its moral values, but China saw it as support for Tibetan separatism.
In 1954, Nehru and Chinese Premier Zhou Enlai signed the Panchsheel Agreement, which was based on five principles:
- Mutual respect for each other’s territorial integrity and sovereignty
- Mutual non-aggression
- Non-interference in internal affairs
- Equality and mutual benefit
- Peaceful coexistence
This agreement symbolized the friendship between India and China, popularized by the slogan “Hindi-Chini Bhai-Bhai” (Indians and Chinese are brothers). However, the Dalai Lama’s asylum in India and the unresolved border disputes damaged relations. The result was the 1962 India-China war, in which the Dalai Lama issue played a significant role.
The “Golden Urn” Process
China wants to use the “Golden Urn” process to determine the next Dalai Lama, a method introduced in 1793 by Emperor Qianlong of the Qing dynasty. In this process, the names of potential candidates are placed inside a golden urn, and a lottery is drawn to make the selection. This system was originally designed to ensure Chinese control over Tibetan religious leadership. However, the current Dalai Lama has stated that this method was merely symbolic in his own selection, and that the Panchen Lama played the key role in identifying him.
China believes that the Dalai Lama is the last major obstacle to the complete integration of Tibet. By controlling his succession, China aims to permanently settle the Tibet issue in its favor.
Fear of War
Renowned defense expert Pravin Sawhney, speaking on July 9 during a program hosted by Satya Hindi founder and veteran journalist Ashutosh, said, “The Dalai Lama is an extremely sensitive issue for China. He is the final link in China’s effort to take full control of Tibet. China considers Arunachal Pradesh to be southern Tibet. After the Dalai Lama passes away, China will decide who the next Dalai Lama is. If China ever goes to war with India, it will be over just one issue — the Dalai Lama. And that war will be unlike anything the world has seen before.”
India’s Position
The Modi government appears to be taking a dual approach on the issue. Kiren Rijiju’s statement reflects support for the Tibetan community, while the Ministry of External Affairs has maintained a neutral stance, signaling an attempt to balance diplomacy. This approach reveals India’s complex position—respecting the sentiments of the Tibetan people while avoiding direct confrontation with China.
In 2003, the Atal Bihari Vajpayee-led government formally recognized Tibet as a part of China. Even the Dalai Lama now advocates for autonomy rather than full independence for Tibet. However, China’s claim over Arunachal Pradesh as “Southern Tibet” and its insistence on total control over the region complicate the matter further.
The Dalai Lama remains a sensitive issue in India-China relations, touching on historical, religious, and political dimensions. The succession dispute, Tibet’s history, and India’s diplomatic posture all add layers to the complexity. Whether this issue leads to war or is resolved through diplomacy depends on the Indian leadership’s diplomatic skill—something that will become clearer in the days to come.
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