How did Congress lose a winning game?
Arvind Mohan. October9,2024
The elections of the two states were considered very important for the future of the Congress as well as for the political future of the Narendra Modi-Amit Shah duo. The Lok Sabha elections had started a change in the country’s politics and its results had changed the mannerisms and style of Modi-Shah – the form of the Parliament and the government had changed. Needless to say, the results of the Haryana and Jammu-Kashmir assembly elections have not only stopped this process of change, but have also reversed it and it is possible that the problems of the Congress and the opposition may increase. Soon the Maharashtra and Jharkhand assembly elections are to be held and many big decisions like one nation one election are to be taken. Meanwhile, in many cases the government had stopped its advance steps or its allies had forced it to take a step back. If the BJP performs in a similar way in some more elections to come, then it will not take much time for Modi ji to return to his old style. He will move towards making records with both his decisions and tenure.
And this transformation of his after cutting short the period of only three-three and a half months will be important. The results of the Lok Sabha elections had an impact on the entire politics and BJP or Modi-Shah were at the centre of it. And it also had an impact on the assembly elections. First of all, Maharashtra assembly elections were postponed and not held along with Haryana. Jammu Kashmir elections were held as per the court order but BJP had almost left the field – especially in the valley areas. It built castles in the air, bet on some dummy candidates but it put its weight in Jammu where the number of seats had increased after delimitation. A bet was also placed on the nomination of five members.
In Haryana too, first the elections were postponed, then there was a fight over the ticket. Claimants for the post of Chief Minister came out. Manohar Lal Khattar, who was removed from the post of Chief Minister, remained influential and he was considered responsible for changing the constituency of Chief Minister Nayab Singh Saini. The election campaign of BJP and the gestures of the leaders were dull. On the other hand, Congress was very aggressive by taking the names of farmers, soldiers and wrestlers and on the last day also it shocked BJP by making Ashok Tanwar change his party. The silence of BJP continued not only till the exit poll results came but also for the first two hours of counting.
But once BJP started taking the lead, all the political pundits were stunned and the Congressmen who had started distributing jalebi or jaleba were stunned. Then its spokespersons started pointing fingers towards the Election Commission. But soon questions were raised on the working style of prominent people like Rahul Gandhi, Bhupinder Singh Hooda, Kumari Selja and Ranjit Surjewala and everyone felt that BJP’s social engineering was more effective. The politics of non-Jat OBCs that BJP started before the elections proved to be better than the Congress policy of Jat dominance. Congress got Muslim votes but Dalit votes were scattered. One reason for this was Kumari Selja’s sulking and the other reason was the services of controversial Baba Ram Rahim of Dera Sacha Sauda.
The behavior of senior leaders like Selja and Surjewala was inappropriate and handing over the right to take all the decisions of the entire state to Hooda was also faulty. The high command did not take care of both these things. It is said that out of ninety, seventy-two candidates were from Hooda’s camp. Hooda ji’s overconfidence was visible for a long time, but instead of gaining any significant profit, it caused loss.
In Haryana, the Congress can blame some Hooda, some Shailaja, some Surjewala but in Jammu and Kashmir, despite the support of the National Conference, its performance was pathetic.
Why did Rahul Gandhi and Priyanka give so little time to election campaign and how did they become so confident of victory, only they will explain this, but their attitude caused losses. BJP’s account not being opened in Kashmir Valley or the final decision of the voters there going against BJP on the abolition of Article 370 definitely raises questions on Modi ji’s working style, but BJP has given its most successful electoral performance till date. Its vote percentage has also increased. The biggest loss has been suffered by Mehbooba Mufti’s party PDP. On the other hand, people like Engineer Rashid and Lone proved to be paper tigers. Ghulam Nabi Azad’s politics also seemed to be dying before the elections, but Congress also suffered losses due to his exit.
Now the question of running the Haryana government is not a big one but the issue of Jammu and Kashmir will demand a lot of caution. Omar Abdullah and his father Farooq Abdullah have been quite serious till now but getting the status of a full state instead of a Union Territory will be a big question. And the father-son duo has also been talking about the restoration of Article 370. On the other hand, the old discourse of the BJP has reached a point with the abolition of Article 370 but without any political consequences. Now, after the opinion of the Kashmiri society on this issue is known, everyone will be watching what the BJP central government will do. But that thing will come to light after some time. Right now, the glow and shine is seen returning on the faces of Narendra Modi and Amit Shah. With these results, their stature has increased not only within the BJP and NDA (even though their faces were not prominent in the elections like before) but also in the politics of the country. They have really won a game that seemed to be losing and their main rival Rahul and Congress have lost a game that was winning.
