What are the political equations in Delhi elections, whose credibility is more at stake?
#News Bureau January 9,2025
The dates for the Delhi Assembly elections have been announced. Voting will take place on February 5 and the results will be declared three days later on February 8. In this election, the prestige of all three parties – AAP, BJP and Congress – is at stake. AAP has been winning record seats for the last two elections, BJP has been out of power for decades despite performing brilliantly in the Lok Sabha elections and Congress is struggling to regain its lost ground. The prestige of all three parties is at stake to such an extent that it can be called a ‘do or die’ situation for them. So the question is why is so much prestige at stake for all three parties and what is the current position of these three parties in the elections.
AAP led by former Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal is trying to remain in power for the third consecutive time, while BJP is trying to capture power in the national capital. Congress could not even open its account in the last two elections, but it is also preparing for a tough fight and it hopes that it will achieve a surprising victory.
The assembly elections are being seen as a battle of prestige for all camps. After Kejriwal resigned as chief minister after getting bail in the liquor policy case in September last year, the AAP announced that he would return to power after the people of Delhi reposed faith in him. Meanwhile, the BJP is making every effort to oust the AAP from power and is accusing the party of corruption at every level.
The opposition parties believe that the political atmosphere has changed in their favour, while the AAP hopes that their welfare schemes will get the support of the people despite the allegations of the opposition. The Congress and the AAP fought the 2024 Lok Sabha elections together under the banner of India Block, but they will fight the assembly elections separately.
Key issues like governance, development, corruption and government services are expected to dominate the campaign. The AAP may count its achievements in education, healthcare and infrastructure development during its tenure. On the other hand, the BJP will focus on national issues and its vision for Delhi’s future, while also highlighting the AAP’s alleged corruption and vacant posts. The Congress will also aim to present itself as an alternative.
The three parties have announced their initial list of candidates for the assembly elections. Kejriwal will face former BJP MP Parvesh Sahib Singh and former Congress MP Sandeep Dikshit, son of late chief minister Sheila Dikshit, in the New Delhi constituency.
Chief Minister Atishi will face Congress’ Alka Lamba and former BJP MP from South Delhi Ramesh Bidhuri from Kalkaji seat.
The AAP first came to power in December 2013 with the help of Congress in a hung assembly. However, just 49 days after coming to power, Kejriwal resigned as chief minister citing failure to pass the anti-corruption Jan Lokpal Bill. In the next two elections – 2015 and 2020 – the party won Delhi with 67 and 62 seats respectively and the BJP remained in single digit in those elections.
By the way, AAP had won a big victory in the Delhi Assembly elections 2020. In that election, Kejriwal’s party got 62 out of 70 seats. BJP was reduced to 8 seats. Like the previous elections, Congress remained at zero. However, AAP lost five seats in this election. AAP got 53.57 percent votes, BJP got 38.51 percent and Congress got 4.26 percent. Congress’s vote percentage decreased significantly compared to 2015.
Earlier, in the Delhi Assembly elections 2015, AAP had won a record 67 seats. Then BJP could win only 3 seats. In the 2015 elections, the condition of Congress was bad and it could not win even a single seat. In this election, AAP got 54.3 percent votes, BJP 32.2 percent and Congress 9.7 percent.
Why is AAP’s credibility at stake?
After coming to power in 2013, AAP once described itself as the harbinger of change, but now it is facing corruption charges. Kejriwal himself spent about six months in jail after being arrested first by the ED and later by the CBI for his role in the alleged Delhi Excise Policy scam. He got bail in September last year. Kejriwal’s colleague and former Delhi Deputy Chief Minister Manish Sisodia also spent more than 17 months in jail in the excise policy case. Another former minister Satyendra Jain and Rajya Sabha MP Sanjay Singh were also arrested and are out on bail.
Kejriwal’s welfare model, including mohalla clinics, improvements in government schools, electricity and water subsidies, is the mainstay of AAP. It was the Delhi model that helped AAP capture the poor and lower middle class vote bank and take the wind out of Congress’ sails. Congress once had a lot of support from these sections. BJP has the support of upper middle class and Punjabi and business community. It has not faced such a decline in its vote bank.
BJP has shifted its focus to attacking AAP on the issue of corruption and targeting Kejriwal personally over the renovation of CM residence “Sheeshmahal”. AAP is facing criticism on the corruption front for the first time.
Barring Punjab, Delhi is the only state in North India where the BJP has not tasted power in the last two decades. But, a look at the vote share of the BJP in the last three decades shows that the party has managed to retain a large support base.
Despite being out of power in Delhi since 1998, the BJP has never fallen below a vote share of 32% in six assembly elections.
This time, the party is set to run its most aggressive campaign ever in Delhi, with Modi at the forefront. The party believes that its vote share among the upper middle class, business and Punjabi communities is intact and it also has the support of a large section of Purvanchal voters. And it is now making a concerted effort to make inroads into the lower middle class, Dalits and the poor.
The rise and fall of the Congress in Delhi has been nothing short of dramatic. The party came to power in Delhi in 1998, only to be routed in the Lok Sabha elections. The BJP also won six of the seven seats in Delhi. The only Congress winner was Meira Kumar from the Karol Bagh seat. In fact, Sheila Dixit who became the CM had lost the East Delhi seat to Lal Bihari Tiwari of the BJP.
But in the November 1998 assembly elections, the Congress won 52 of the 70 seats with a vote share of 47.76% and ruled Delhi for 15 years with Sheila Dikshit at the head of the Congress government. This reign ended in 2013, when the Congress was reduced to just eight seats, and Sheila Dikshit herself lost to Kejriwal.
The party suffered a major setback in 2015, when it failed to open its account and its vote share fell below 10%. In the last assembly elections, the party fell even further, getting only 4.26% of the votes, while 63 of its 66 candidates forfeited their deposits.
This election is crucial for the opposition India Bloc as Kejriwal’s party is the only constituent of the opposition bloc that is in power in more than one state. Kejriwal has good personal equations with opposition leaders, who do not have good rapport with the Congress. AAP’s third consecutive win in Delhi will strengthen Kejriwal’s position in the India Bloc and put further pressure on the Congress. On the contrary, AAP’s defeat will be a matter of relief for the Congress.
