Will Kejriwal be able to compete Modi in Loksabha Election 2024?
Manish Sisodia’s arrest is a blow to Arvind Kejriwal. Sisodia is not only the number two minister in the government but he also holds the number two position in the party. But his importance is more than that of the government and the party because after Anna and Kejriwal, he was the biggest leader of the anti-corruption movement. When the Manmohan government sent Anna and Kejriwal to Tihar jail, Sisodia also went to jail. His friendship with Kejriwal is unparallel. They have been each other’s best friends for almost twenty years. Both of them together made the outline and strategy of the Anna movement. Anna was also chosen as the face by both of them together. It can be said that if Kejriwal was the hero of Anna movement then Sisodia’s role was also no less than that of a hero. In such a situation, the anti-corruption hero going to jail on corruption charges is tragic, sad and also contradictory.
Manish Sisodia was also a key strategist in forming the Aam Aadmi Party after the movement. It is a different matter that Kejriwal later went ahead in the party and Sisodia’s role became limited. The entire party started revolving around Kejriwal, everything started happening according to him and Manish, like other colleagues, became subordinate to the boss because he could never assert himself in front of Kejriwal. Never had the courage to have a different opinion from him. He also regretted that if he had been able to do this, perhaps the party would not have made all the mistakes that it went on making. It was not that he did not realize that Kejriwal’s decisions were harming the party, the party was deviating from its path, the party was doing everything to win the elections which the Aam Aadmi Party was trying to oppose. But perhaps his loyalty to his friend outweighed his thoughts.
The liquor policy of the AAP government was in controversies since day one. Questions were raised from day one on the government’s decision to hand over liquor vends to private hands. It is very difficult for me to say whether there was a scam in the liquor policy or not. That is a subject of investigation. But the way a CBI inquiry was ordered after the arrival of the new Lieutenant Governor Saxena, Manish Sisodia’s press conference immediately thereafter, holding the old Lieutenant Governor Anil Baijal responsible for the tax policy and changing the entire liquor policy, strengthened the suspicion. Played a big role in feeling that something was wrong somewhere.
The wall of this doubt becomes bigger when AAP spent money like water during the elections in Goa and Punjab. People started asking questions and this was the moment when government agencies got a chance to lay hands on you. How much substance are there in these allegations and what is the role of Manish in it, it will be proved in the court, but this one step has definitely put a stain on Sisodia’s forehead.
AAP emerged in the 2010s as an idea that could be called a rebellion against the obscene and disgusting nexus of power and politics. Which created such a wave of protest against corruption in the country that Manmohan Singh’s government fell, Congress got into an existential crisis.
It is not just a coincidence that when Modi’s Ashwamedha horse was galloping, it wins 67 out of 70 seats in the Prime Minister’s city Delhi. Even in 2020, it puts 62 seats in her pocket. And in Punjab captures 92 out of 117 seats. And all the stalwarts who are considered synonymous with Punjab politics are seen biting dust. The defeat of Prakash Singh Badal and Captain Amarinder Singh in Punjab was not a minor incident. But this happened. This happened because people saw the future in him. He was very unhappy with traditional politics. He wanted to teach a lesson to the worthlessness of politics. The people wanted to take revenge from those who cheated the public in the name of the public. But if the same people start feeling that you have also started on the same path, then it would be natural to feel disillusioned. Manish’s arrest will take this process forward.
This will happen also because AAP is not an organized force like BJP. It is like a wave in Indian politics. AAP should have formed an organization to organize and discipline this wave, and should have raised a cadre like the Sangh. AAP had become very soon an election fighting machine. And to win the elections, they started adopting all the tactics that other parties are doing. It felt that the BJP was winning because of Hindutva, so it started taking help of religion. It realized that elections cannot be won without money, so it started collecting funds and forgot the idea of good and bad. It was seen doing the same things against which it had come to power. That is, they started losing whatever identity they had.
Morality was their biggest strength, now it started eroding. In such a situation, Sisodia’s arrest will further erode this moral capital. Once the moral capital is lost then no one can stop your downfall. AAP lacks the ideology and heritage which is required to pull back the falling base in politics and which Congress and BJP have. Therefore, once you slip, it will be very difficult for him to regain the lost ground. In such a situation, those who are hoping that AAP can be an alternative to Congress may be disappointed.
As far as challenging Modi in 2024 is concerned, the sooner this thought is forgotten, the better it is. Comparison between Modi and Kejriwal is not right. Before challenging Modi, Kejriwal will have to win the Lok Sabha elections in Delhi. AAP talks big but till now it has not been able to win even a single Lok Sabha seat in its biggest stronghold Delhi. It lost all seven seats in both 2014 and 2019. It was the third party in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. Congress was at second place. AAP could not save the security deposit on three out of seven seats. In Punjab, it lost the Chief Minister’s Sangrur seat after a landslide victory in the assembly elections. As of today it does not have a single MP in the Lok Sabha. Yes, it will definitely damage Congress at some places in the assembly elections, but right now it is not in a position to compete with BJP.
AAP will try to create an atmosphere on Sisodia’s arrest, it is difficult to say how successful it will be. But if Seodia does not get bail from the court soon, you will face problems. Both in running the government and in the game of image. Manish has 18 departments and Kejriwal trusts him blindly. After Satyendra Jain goes to jail, now Manish’s arrest will paralyze the entire government. It will not be easy for Kejriwal to find his replacement.
(Courtesy – Hindustan)
