Exit Poll: Hung Assembly in Jammu and Kashmir, will PDP be the kingmaker?
#News Bureau October 6,2024
According to most exit polls released on Saturday, the Congress-NC alliance may miss out on winning half the seats in Jammu and Kashmir. Some polls predicted a hung house, while others gave the Congress-NC alliance a slight edge.
The exit polls showed two broad trends – the PDP was almost wiped out, and the BJP managed to save its seats in the Jammu region. In such a situation, the role of the PDP has become very important. In most trends, the Congress-NC alliance is seen falling short of a majority by the same number of seats as the PDP is seen winning. That means the PDP may come into the role of kingmaker. In such a situation, will Mehbooba go with her historic rival National Conference or her former ally BJP?
Jammu and Kashmir has been holding assembly elections after 10 years and for the first time since the abrogation of Article 370 in 2019. With 90 assembly constituencies this time, the India Today-C Voter poll projected the Congress-NC to win close to half the seats. It gave the Congress-NC 40-48 seats, the BJP 27-32, the PDP 6-12 and ‘others’ 6-11 seats. There are 90 seats in the Jammu and Kashmir assembly, so the majority figure is 46.
The Axis My India exit poll has projected the BJP to get 24-34 seats, the Congress and NC alliance 35-45 seats, the PDP 4-6 seats and others 12-18 seats.
In the exit poll of Dainik Bhaskar, BJP has been predicted to get 20-25 seats, Congress and NC alliance 35-40 seats, People’s Democratic Party i.e. PDP 4-7 seats and other parties 12-16 seats.
The People’s Pulse exit poll has predicted 23-27 seats for the BJP, 46-50 seats for the Congress-NC alliance, 7-11 seats for the PDP and 4-6 seats for other parties.
Mehbooba Mufti’s People’s Democratic Party, a former BJP ally, has been tipped to emerge as the kingmaker. The party has ruled out any possibility of an alliance with the BJP and is talking only in terms of a secular coalition.
The ball could thus be in the court of the National Conference and the Congress to send signals to the PDP. But the hurdle here is the historic rivalry between the erstwhile NC and the PDP, which have always competed for votes in the Kashmir Valley. Before the elections, Mehbooba Mufti had made a big offer to the NC-Congress alliance, saying she was ready to stay out of the elections and leave all the assembly seats for the PDP if they were ready to accept its agenda, including Kashmir.
The two parties, part of the Gupkar alliance which aims to restore statehood, were unable to come to a consensus for the Lok Sabha elections despite repeated requests from the Congress.
The BJP-PDP alliance, which was formed after a split mandate in 2014, collapsed in 2018, following which President’s rule was imposed in the state. In 2019, it was split into two union territories, a decision the BJP has promised to reverse in its third term at the Centre.
