Will Bihar get a new Santa Claus in the new year?
Shalesh December 28,2024
The new year will be the year of assembly elections in Bihar. Although the elections will be held in October-November as per the schedule, but almost all the parties have started wooing the voters from now on. Chief Minister Nitish Kumar is on a “Pragati Yatra” these days. He is going to every district and announcing new schemes worth hundreds of crores. He is raising hopes of doing what he could not do even after being the Chief Minister for 20 years. It is believed that he is also trying to strengthen his ground against the BJP, so that his party does not have to bow down to the conditions of the BJP in the distribution of tickets for the assembly.
Opposition leader Tejashwi Yadav is on a “Karyakarta Darshan Saha Samvad” Yatra. Prashant Kishore, who has just entered Bihar politics, is preparing for a new journey after completing the “Jan Suraj Yatra” and forming a new party. BJP, the largest party in the Bihar Assembly at present, is trying to reach out to the voters through the membership campaign. The main objective of all these campaigns seems to be the same, to understand the mood of the voters and prepare a precise strategy to bring them to their side. One of the objectives is also to find a winning candidate. All the parties have understood that the voters of Bihar are seething with anger inside, hence the politics may change in the next assembly elections.
Only one Santa Clause
For the last twenty years, there is only one Santa Clause in Bihar politics, Nitish Kumar. The alliance he goes with gets the gift of victory in the Legislative Assembly, and his government is formed. Even if Nitish’s party is not the largest party in the Legislative Assembly, he becomes the Chief Minister. This trend has been going on since the 2005 Legislative Assembly elections. In the 2005 and 2010 elections, he was with the NDA i.e. BJP alliance, so the NDA government was formed. In the Modi era, in the 2015 and 2020 elections, Nitish left the NDA and went with the RJD alliance, and the NDA was out of power.
Is Nitish still as powerful politically? This can be understood with just one example. Recently, when RJD leaders invited Nitish to join their alliance, BJP leaders launched a political attack on RJD. Union Minister Giriraj Singh, who was once considered to be Nitish Kumar’s biggest opponent in BJP, demanded Bharat Ratna for Nitish. It can be said that Nitish Kumar’s influence in Bihar politics remains intact. The first big reason for this is that the social equation of extremely backward and extremely Dalits that Nitish created around the year 2000 is still intact.
Nitish himself belongs to the Koiri caste, which is the most powerful among the most backward castes and competes with the most powerful backward caste Yadav on the ground. Later, through the liquor ban in the state, Nitish associated women with him as a political force. BJP cannot come to power with the support of upper castes only, so it needs Nitish. The RJD alliance does not expect to come to power only with the power of my factor i.e. Muslim-Yadav, so its doors are always open for Nitish.
The third door: There was a lot of noise about the entry of election strategist turned politician Prashant Kishore in politics, but his party could not do any big wonders in the assembly by-elections held some time ago. What definitely happened was that due to the presence of his party’s candidates, the RJD alliance lost two seats and BJP got the benefit of it. There is no indication yet that Prashant’s Jan Suraj Party will be able to do any big wonders in the 2025 elections.
Prashant wants to make education and employment a big issue, his supporters are hoping that it will have an impact on the young generation. His announcement to end the liquor ban is also getting support from a section. The reason for this is the illegal liquor trade in the state and the terror and atrocities of the police in the name of this. Prashant is trying to get the state out of caste-centric politics and talk about development issues. It is not easy for a state stuck in extreme casteism to get out of it.
Maharashtra in Bihar
There is no guarantee that Maharashtra cannot be repeated in Bihar after the 2025 elections. At present, BJP has 84 members and JDU has 48 members in the Bihar Legislative Assembly, yet BJP has given the Chief Minister’s chair to Nitish, just like it gave it to Shinde in Maharashtra. When BJP got a big victory in the 2024 Maharashtra Legislative Assembly elections, Shinde was forced to accept the post of Deputy Chief Minister. In 2025, if BJP emerges as a big force in Bihar and Prashant Kishor is able to do something amazing in Bihar like Ajit Pawar did in Maharashtra, then the situation can change. To break into Nitish’s vote bank in Bihar, BJP tried to field leaders like Upendra Kushwaha and Jitan Ram Manjhi, which was completely unsuccessful. Boatmen leaders like Mukesh Sahni are struggling to save their existence. Nitish is aware of the changing circumstances but he knows that BJP cannot play any gamble in the presence of saviors like RJD.
