Jammu Kashmir Elections: Will the dominance of National Conference be maintained in the second phase?

#News Bureau September 25,2024. Jammu Kashmir

Voting for the second phase of 26 seats has started in Jammu and Kashmir on Wednesday. Most of the 15 seats going to polls in this phase are in the Kashmir Valley, the remaining 11 seats are in Jammu. Nine of the 26 are Scheduled Tribe-reserved seats – Budhal, Gulabgarh, Mendhar, Rajouri, Surankot, Thannamandi and Kangan. Of these, Kangan falls in the Kashmir Valley.

Due to delimitation, at least seven of these 26 seats have been renamed or separated from other constituencies. Before delimitation in 2022, these areas were confined to 24 seats.

In the 2014 Assembly elections, these 26 seats saw a main contest between the Mehbooba Mufti-led People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and the Farooq Abdullah-led National Conference (NC). The PDP won 10 seats, followed by the NC at eight. Of the remaining seats, the BJP won three and the Congress two, with the People’s Democratic Front winning one seat. In terms of vote share in the 2014 election, the PDP was ahead in these seats with 31.04%, followed by NC at 28.66%, Congress at 14.19% and the BJP at 12.53%.

The tables turned in 2019: The PDP suffered major losses in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections that were held after the formation and fall of the PDP-BJP government. It failed to gain a lead in any of the assembly constituencies that are voting on Wednesday. The National Conference was ahead in 15 assembly constituencies, followed by the Congress in six and the BJP in three.

Here is the result
In the recent Lok Sabha elections held in Jammu and Kashmir after the repeal of Article 370 and delimitation, the National Conference continued its strong performance and gained lead in 20 assembly constituencies. The PDP again did not emerge as the frontrunner in any of the 26 assembly constituencies. The BJP was ahead in three, followed by the Congress and independent Engineer Rashid in one each.

Five big contests

Central Shalteng: Congress Jammu and Kashmir chief Tariq Hameed Karra vs PDP’s Abdul Qayoom Bhat vs Apni Party’s Zafar Habib Dar, a former Hurriyat activist.

Budgam: National Conference vice-president and former CM Omar Abdullah vs PDP’s Aga Syed Muntazir Mehdi, a Shia cleric.

Channapora: Apni Party chief Altaf Bukhari vs NC candidate and businessman Mushtaq Guru vs PDP’s Mohammad Iqbal Tramboo, vs BJP’s Hilal Ahmad Wani.

Ganderbal: NC’s Omar Abdullah vs PDP state secretary Bashir Ahmad Mir vs jailed independent candidate Maulvi Sarjan Barkati.

Nowshera: BJP Jammu and Kashmir chief Ravinder Raina vs NC’s Surinder Choudhary, a former BJP and PDP member, vs PDP’s Haq Nawaz.